Bitcoin's recent rise above its 50-week moving average and reduced speculative activity suggest June marked the cycle low, according to Galaxy Research. The firm argues that the bear market likely ended in June, with improving price signals and reduced selling pressure making Bitcoin an attractive asset to accumulate. Despite a recent stall in the rally, prices remain near $80,000, up 38% from June's lows under $58,000. Galaxy's analysis highlights that Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase similar to periods preceding previous market advances.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, noted that asset managers have significantly reduced their exposure to Bitcoin through CME futures and ETFs, indicating that fast money has left the market. This shift suggests a healthier market environment, with long-term investors positioning themselves for potential gains. The firm also pointed to rising U.S. debt and fiscal risks as factors that strengthen Bitcoin's appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Galaxy further emphasized that institutional buying has increased, with spot Bitcoin ETFs adding 87,000 BTC following the June low. This renewed demand suggests a shift in sentiment, with investors buying the dip. However, the firm acknowledges risks such as broader market declines, AI disruption, and quantum computing threats. A weekly close below $76,540, followed by a failure to recover within a month, could challenge its technical outlook. Despite these risks, Galaxy remains confident in Bitcoin's long-term potential, believing the conditions are favorable for a recovery.