OPEC has revised its 2027 demand forecast upward, anticipating a significant increase in global oil consumption. This growth would push average world oil demand from 105.7 million bpd in 2026 to 108.3 million bpd next year. The forecast includes inventory rebuilding as a key factor, with refiners, traders, and governments replacing barrels drawn down during the Iran war. OECD commercial stocks were 177.2 million barrels below their 2015-2019 average in August, with product inventories alone 80.4 million barrels below that benchmark.
Regional demand trends show a rebound, with OECD oil demand expected to rise by 500,000 bpd next year after a decline of 200,000 bpd in 2026. Non-OECD demand growth is projected to reach 2 million bpd. Gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel are leading the product rebound, with diesel demand expected to grow by 420,000 bpd after a decline of 190,000 bpd in 2026.
Supply outside the OPEC+ group is not expected to keep pace with this demand growth. OPEC forecasts non-DoC liquids growth of just 600,000 bpd in 2027, with an additional 100,000 bpd from DoC natural gas liquids and other non-conventional sources. This leaves more work for OPEC+ crude, with demand for DoC crude forecast to rise from 42.1 million bpd this year to 43.9 million bpd in 2027.
OPEC's October report highlights a stark contrast between 2026 and 2027, with almost no demand growth in 2026 followed by a sharp rebound in 2027 as consumption recovers and oil is reintroduced into storage. The report underscores the importance of inventory rebuilding in driving the anticipated demand surge.